When I was handed a yellow card with the number "11" written on it--my heart jumped like not felt in some time. Since the beginning of the top of the 7th inning, Sohna and I were standing in The Foyer of The Executive Offices of Our Washington Nationals. During the fifth inning an Official from Our Team had come to our seats in Section 218 asking me to come to Level 2M behind home plate. My name had been randomly picked as a WINNER OF SHIRTS OFF THEIR BACK DAY.
The African Queen said she had not seen me so excited in a long, long, time. So thrilled, I started to leave Club Level right away without picking up all our stuff in and around our seats. Now--as the Yellow Card was given me--my only thought was that, some how, some way, Ryan Zimmerman was the Jersey I had Won Off His Back. The card did read Number 11.
Not a sole among the 20 some odd folks waiting in The Team Offices was not reflecting on their numbers given as well. There was a different accounting method going on among those on hand. And it had nothing to do with very fact that Our Washington Nationals were down 6-1 at the time on the field against The San Diego Padres. Five might well have been the deficit in the game, but the numbers of record being considered was who on Our Washington Nationals had each winner's corresponding jersey number. Everyone was going through The Roster Numbers of Washington's Active Roster. But, what most standing in The Foyer did not realize--was that more than a dozen winners will have their jerseys sent to them--as those lucky folks were not in attendance. That very fact changed the order, dramatically.
Eventually, we all headed down to The Service Level of New Nationals Park. Past The Presidents Club we walked and then into the tunnel directly beside The Visiting Dugout on South Capitol Street. There we waited, patiently, chatting baseball with some new found friends, not watching the game--only knowing Our Washington Nationals were not winning. Finally, The Final Score was announced to us, although none of us witnessed the final three innings. The San Diego Padres had swept Our Washington Nationals. And with the excitement building among those waiting in line, no one really seemed to be too upset about Our Team's defeats now nearing the 100 level for 2008. EVERYONE waiting--just wanting to walk out onto the field and stand on the third base line--Our Final Positioning before receiving The Jerseys Off Our Players Backs.
Radio Broadcaster Charlie Slowes was announced as The Master of Ceremonies and the festivities finally began. One by one each player standing along the first base line was introduced. Each player then presenting their jersey to the corresponding winner in line. As the process continued--the jockeying for positioning continued. While The Winners remained in order, Our Players, talking among themselves, changed their lineup consistently. At one time it appeared that Joel Hanrahan was the jersey I would receive. Then, Ryan Langerhans. Even Our Number 29 noticed I might be his recipient and we acknowledged the possible moment across the diamond--both of us laughing at the fate. Unfortunately, Ryan Langerhans would not be my final destination. As the numbers dwindled and the winners received their jerseys, the one Player from Our Washington Nationals, for me, finally came into focus. Roger Bernadina would be MY NEW MAN!! Yes, Our Number 2 would present to SBF The Jersey Off His Very Back. I was very, very happy.
Honestly, it really did not matter who would give me their jersey. Certainly everybody wanted to win Ryan Zimmerman or Our Manager Manny Acta's Jersey's. That did not matter to The African Queen and I. The very fact that I won by donating to The Washington Nationals Dream Foundation was far more important. But, the sight of Charlie Slowes chuckling as I passed him after being presented Jersey Number 2 from Roger Bernadina--well worth the effort. You can bet I had a BIG SMILE on my face. Now, That WAS FABULOUS. Even Mr. Bang!! Zoom!! was enjoying the moment alongside me--shaking his head in wonder.
Sometimes it's all about The MOMENT. And this was a good one.
With Sohna cheering me on from the stands alongside our friends Melissa and Matt--I was quite thrilled. Out of the blue, Sohna and I, with NO EXPECTATIONS OF WINNING, were fortunate enough to take home a jersey of a 2008 Member of Our Washington Nationals. A Roger Bernadina Red "DC" Uniform Top from The Inaugural Season Of New Nationals Park. The Very Jersey we love, that from all the information given to us, will be a retired jersey after Our Washington Nationals play their final game this season. A New Red Curly "W" Jersey may well be coming for 2009.
Thrilled to win, and excited knowing that for the remainder of my life--Roger Bernadina's Uniform--worn in The Very First Season Of Play at New Nationals Park--A HISTORIC MOMENT IN THE HISTORY OF OUR YOUNG FRANCHISE--will be displayed in our home in Alexandria, Virginia--FOREVER. Yes, everything we do is a team effort for Sohna and I. The African Queen and I left South Capitol Street tonight proud that we were lucky enough to win A Jersey Off The Back of Roger Bernadina in The Inaugural Season of New Nationals Park.
We are going to frame it. And Enjoy The Uniform For The Remainder Of Our Lives.
Running into Team President Stan Kasten and Our General Manager Jim Bowden after the presentation--Mr. Kasten said to me: "You got a good one. He is going to be a good player. That uniform will pay off far more than you possibly paid for the tickets."
JimBo stating: "You got that right."
Funny hearing all that from Team Management after another fan sitting in the stands upon the conclusion of the ceremony stated to me--" You were one person away from receiving a $2000 Jersey--instead you received a $20 Jersey." I had to laugh, because this person had missed the entire point of the message. What Shirts Off Their Backs Was All About--supporting The Washington Nationals Dream Foundation and their causes.
Final Score from Wonderfully Comfortable New Nationals Park--The San Diego Padres 6 and Our Washington Nationals 2. Loss number 98 of 2008 may well assure a 100 Loss Season for DC's Team and the distinct possibility Washington may receive The Number One Pick in the 2009 Entry Draft. But at least on this day, being drafted for me resulted in the presentation of Roger Bernadina's Jersey Number 2. No, I didn't finish Number 1, but I won. Sohna and I coming home tonight proud we had supported a good cause and been rewarded for Our Efforts.
Game Notes & Highlights
Interestingly, Roger Bernadina wears a Size 46 Jersey. A size not available for purchase on MLB.com. My personalized jerseys are sizes 44 and 48. Bernadina's Number 2 is a Wonderfully Fit Cool Base Jersey. If I ever decided to wear it--the fit would be ABSOLUTELY PERFECT.
If Adrian Gonzalez was available for Our Washington Nationals, I would make every effort to get him as Our Starting First Baseman. Not well known throughout the game among fans, The San Diego Padres first baseman has quietly become a star. What in the world were The Texas Rangers thinking of back in 2006 when they traded Gonzalez to San Diego in the Mark Eaton Deal--along with Terrmel Sledge? Today, Adrian Gonzalez slammed his 35th Home Run and 115 RBI in the 6th off Odalis Perez. Even before Steroids ruined his career, Rafael Palmeiro was always one of my favorite players. A great hitter and solid player. Adrian Gonzalez is almost a clone of Palmeiro at the plate. He's got that perfect swing from the left hand side of the plate (and for you negative folks, that's not claiming in any way The Padres First Baseman is juiced. Just writing about similarities in style).
Ryan Zimmerman broke out of a 0-12 Slump in the bottom of the 6th when he hammered a Cha Seung Baek 3-1 fastball deep to right centerfield for a home run. One of those shots that always shows that Our Number 11 is seeing the ball well and not over swinging at the plate. Later, "Z" would single in Washington's final run of the afternoon scoring Ryan Langerhans.
Other than that, I honestly can't write much about the game on the field. I didn't see nearly 1/3rd of it. Although Our Racing Presidents competed on Segways this Sunday at New Nationals Park. Teddy, of course, held the lead but could not manage the corner from the right field wall to the right field foul line. Tom easily passing Our Lovable Loser--winning The Segway Presidents Race.
Many Thanks to Steve and his son Christian for stopping Sohna and I near Noah's Pretzels before the game and saying hello. Also, Lee and of course--Karen and Lou Gehrig (also known as TEDDY)-- that's right, that is his real name. All of whom are big fans of The Nats320 Blog. If you haven't come to realize it by now--Every day at New Nationals Park is all about Our Friends.
Finally, the final Kids Giveaway for 2008 was handed out today. In sponsorship with Smithfield, all kids 12 and Under received a Red Curly "W" Backpack. They are pretty big and seem to be of decent quality.
Today's InGame Photos--(AP) Luis M. Alvarez
All Other Photos--Nats320 (All Rights Reserved)
66 comments:
SBF - Congrats on winning Bernadina's jersey. That will look great displayed. I won Willie Harris Opening Day jersey at one of the Foundation's Saturday night auctions. Very special.
I would suggest framing the jersey in a shadowbox frame and JerseyPro in Baltimore does a great job!
By the way "Bernie's Best Friend" aka Sol says he will pay you $250 for the jersey although I told him you probably would never part with it.
SBF- That is a very nice thank you directly from the NATS! Congratulations. I didn't win nuttin. :o(
"If you haven't come to realize it by now--Every day at New Nationals Park is all about Our Friends."
Unfortunately, truer words were never spoken.
SBF said...If Adrian Gonzalez was available for Our Washington Nationals, I would make every effort to get him as Our Starting First Baseman. Not well known throughout the game among fans, The San Diego Padres first baseman has quietly become a star.
We wish!!! He is exactly would the Doctor ordered, but the Padres consider him, Kouzmanoff and Venable as their cornerstones for the future.
Interesting article in early 2007 about Adrian Gonzalez and his league minimum contract:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20070302-9999-1s2padres.html
He is under Padres control for 2009 and 2010 with a club option for 2011 for $5.5 million.
I can already see the writing on the wall in 2011 when the Padres deal him before the July 31st trade deadline to a contending team and then the NY Yankees sign him in 2012 as a Free Agent.
SBF, Congrats - I was the lucky winner of manager Manny Acta's shirt. it was an amazing thrill. It was my first game at the new stadium - I live in Harrisburg and get to watch the AA Senators regularly. When I received my phone call telling me I was a winner, I was just hoping to get a former Senator's jersey. I know many of the winners are season ticket holders, but even though I am not a regular, my family and I are still fans, and it will be framed and treated with the respect the Manager has earned.
I would have liked to see Sohna down there accepting the jersey.
There was a Mother Superior who once won a raffle at the local parish for the station wagon - pure luck! Bow-Bow gave me a Nook Logan jersey, saying it would be worth more than my Brandon Watson jersey someday...
Trust in Free Lunches. All about the Federal Reserve is better than good...
I saw you down on the field as I was watching the presentation of the shirts off their backs, and thought, This guy is everywhere!
OK SBF, fess up - were you really randomly selected or did they choose you because of your popularity with players, GM, owners, fans, etc. I just find the coincidence amazing that you would win! And you stated that they came to your section and got you - I don't recall the form having a spot for section and seat number; it was just phone and address. So I ask again, did you really randomly win?!
Either way, congrats on the shirt! I'm just very jealous!
:-)
Popularity with the fans??? Guess you haven't heard all the critisms. Ask around, he's alienated most.
Popularity with the fans??? Guess you haven't heard all the critisms. Ask around, he's alienated most.
Obviously, you don't read the other posts in this blog, Annie. Having multiple personality disorder doesn't count you as "most."
It wasn't on the form, those of us that won were called on our cell phones. This seems fishy...
Clearly there is an issue here.
There is no issue here.
And why do you care if you won and they called you on your cell phone?
I filled out the tickets and put our home phone number on it. When the team called they obviously didn't get us at home. Since we come to every game, they sent someone to our seats.
ALMOST EVERYONE KNOWS WHERE WE SIT.
IT'S NOT A SECRET.
If you don't like that we won too bad. We did, honestly by buying raffle tickets, like everyone else. So, are you stating that we are not allowed to enter any contest and actually win something?
That's really foolish and selfish thinking.
Just another miserable person making an attempt to take away our fun with more petty nonsense--which is all some of you folks seem to care about--useless uninformed stupidiy.
In fact, we still have the message from the team still on our answering machine in our home. Too bad we can't play it for you.
Some of you are just destined to be miserable. Sorry, but we are not that way and your foolishness will not destroy our enjoyment we have with Our Washington Nationals.
As I said before, take your pettiness elsewhere. You are not welcome here.
Again, we don't see anyone coming up to us to make these false statements in person--just more slander from the usual hidden suspects with their own hidden agendas that just wish to stir up hatred, for their own personal reasons.
As for those MANY, MANY more decent people who came to congratulate us--we can't thank you enough for sharing the fun of the moment with us. Thank You.
The African Queen's comment seals it. This blog will now be removed from my bookmarks.
Anyone with an IQ higher than 50 would immediately question, at the very least, the coincidental nature of the Nats' biggest sycophant winning a jersey. Maybe it's legit, maybe not, but it's one of those things that make you go hmmm. Especially with a team nearing an embarrassing landmark and needing all the friends it can get to protect "JimBo" and crew.
So since the African Queen believes that it shows "stupidity" to connect the dots at a level so easy even a caveman could do it, I'll accept her offer and not visit here anymore.
I have a very good reason for not winning---I wasn't at the game. I don't begrudge SBF for winning, and neither do most of the fans who post on this blog.
Oh, K? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Look, is it really that incredible that SBF would win the raffle? There were probably 25 jerseys given away, and I'll probably bet the number of fans who actually entered were in the hundreds. In other words, his odds of winning were much better than the naysayers give credit. SBF's name was drawn, and he won. As far as I am concerned, congrats to SBF---he deserves it!
One more thing for the record. I'd like to think that I am the biggest Nats sycophant around here. SBF and the AQ can just afford more tickets than I can...
Conspiracy theories???? Get real. Like I have said before, good things happen to good people.
Who won the Zim jersey?
Edward J. Cunningham said...
I have a very good reason for not winning---I wasn't at the game.
Edward - The manager at the Dream Foundation told me that DC law prohibits making a promotion like this only eligible to people at that particular game so let me ask the question, were all the winner's present?
Lord, have mercy. Is SBF winning a jersey that important for people to gripe about?
Get a life, people...
Congrats, SBF.
Andrew raises a good point. I was told that you need not be present to win. If the NATS called your home phone, why would you be sought out in the crowd? Please, a little humility here...I read the blog but I have no idea where you sit.
edward J - one more thing. There were over 3,000 tickets sold. Yes, it is rigged.
Edward J. Cunningham said...
One more thing for the record. I'd like to think that I am the biggest Nats sycophant around here.
I had to break out my dictionary to look up SYCOPHANT and it was defined as a slanderer or swindler and I don't think either are positive so unless there are other definitions I'm not sure where you are going with this one EJC.
Oh c'mon people, of course it wasn't rigged, he got the Bernadina jersey for godsakes!
Wow, everyone beat me to the punch, why did they come and visit you at your seat and why did you win!? Oh right, you are a member of the Nationals organization disguised as a independent blogger! Get real you are just like the PACs that make commercials for candidates because if they made them they would lose the election. I am very glad you did not a jersey from anyone who actually played in the game making your jersey WORTHLESS!
Edward - The manager at the Dream Foundation told me that DC law prohibits making a promotion like this only eligible to people at that particular game so let me ask the question, were all the winner's present?
If you aren't at the game, you can't buy a raffle ticket. If raffle tickets were sold elsewhere, I don't know about it.
Annie, if you consider SBF to be a sycophant, then I am proud to be a sycophant too. Consider the source, people...
SBF and the African Queen - Tige and I enjoyed seeing you and thanks for posting the picture of our boys with their backpacks!
When we filled out our tickets, the Nats' folks asked us to put our cell phone number, Section, Row and seat number and name on the ticket. If we won, they'd come find us. Alas, we didn't but I'm happy for everyone who did. I trust it was completely random and nice for those whose names were drawn.
There's a cadre of people out there who are still jealous and angry that D.C. has baseball back. They troll on the blogs, make fun of people wearing Nats' attire and post angry comments on stories about the team.
To all who love the Nationals - don't let them steal your joy or get you to stop supporting our home team or this blog! Wear the stuff! Come to the games! Celebrate the great gift of having the greatest game back home again! Win or lose, rejoice! We have the national pastime in the nation's capital and, no matter what happens in the future, no one can ever take away the joy of these 4 seasons and all the wonderful times and memories -- from me or any other Nats fan!
I love baseball and I love the Nationals and no one will ever take my joy from me!
If Miss Chatter had won a jersey EVERYONE would be happy because she is a good person.
Another interesting dialogue on this blog in the commentary area. Having met and talked with SBF and Sohna on a handful of occasions, I have only found them to be genuine and extremely cordial and nice. They are obviously huge fans of the nationals and support the team by coming to most every game, as far as I can tell. They seem to spend an inordinate amount of time writing about their experiences at the ballpark and events surrounding the team. This blog has even provided fresh information that was appreciated by me and my husband not written anywhere else. Who knows how much free time they have given up to report their experiences about the team? Yet some it seems just feel it's necessary to attempt to tear all their hard work away. I don't understand how so many can be so cruel--when they may not even know this couple. I enjoy reading this blog. It's fresh, different and mostly positive. In this day and age its refreshing to go to a spot where folks are having fun. Congratulations on winning a jersey and please keep up the good work. We appreciate your efforts. See you soon. Cathy
My guess is the negative posts are from 1 or 2 people crowing about the same issue as if they were 5 or 6 different people that want to look like the immoral majority on here.
Wah wah wah, you won something so it had to be fixed.
It is statistics just like the game of baseball that can easily be changed into one's favor with good strategy which in this case is simple math.
Lets just say Anon at 9:25 is correct that there were 3,000 entries and for simplicity let's say with the expanded roster + Manny there were 30 jerseys (there are closer to 33 in actuality). You don't know how many chances SBF & the AQ purchased (because nobody asked them). If they purchased $50 worth they would have 10 chances ($5 tickets) or 1:10 of winning a single jersey. What if they put in $500 then their chances would have been 1:1. That's correct. If you donated $500 you would have had better than a 1:1 chance and possibly would have won more than 1 jersey statisically.
So here's the bottom line, GOOD THINGS HAPPEN TO GOOD PEOPLE so before you say that it is "rigged" even if they bought 1 chance that is all you need to win.
Also, the Nationals Dream Foundation is such a noble cause. There is no way they would rig anything. Hopefully you all have donated to their wall of balls in the outfield.
Here is the link to make a donation to the Wall of Dreams.
http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/was/community/foundation/index.jsp?mc=wallofdreams
Andrew- this is anon9:25-
Let's use your example. Your math numbers are hilarious. Let's review, shall we? 3000 tickets sold, 10 bought ($50). Your chances of winning are 3000/10 or 1 in 300. I won't bother to take this further. Good day sir. P.S. hire a good accountant for your "business."
Anonymous said...
Andrew- this is anon9:25-
Let's use your example. Your math numbers are hilarious. Let's review, shall we? 3000 tickets sold, 10 bought ($50). Your chances of winning are 3000/10 or 1 in 300. I won't bother to take this further. Good day sir. P.S. hire a good accountant for your "business."
Hire a good accountant? Like a few people that post here, I am a CPA and I took statistics in College and the math is correct based soley on the assumptions.
Lets review:
Your math is correct if there was 1 jersey given away, but I checked and they gave away Coaches jerseys too plus every player that was there so the total was actually 39.
So let's go back to your math.
Let's review, shall we? 3000 tickets sold, 10 bought ($50). Your chances of winning are 3000/10 or 1 in 300 if there was ONE jersey. Take the 300 and divide by the number of jerseys and use my previous example of 30 and 300/30 or 1 in 10.
I don't know for a fact that there were 3,000 tickets, but that was the number you gave.
I personally purchased 20 tickets and I didn't win. I could have purchased 100 tickets and it wouldn't have guaranteed me a win. It works that way all the time in lotteries.
The money went to charity so let's all be thankful for all who contributed.
Well, I thought of asking here myself how many chances SBF had bought, just out of curiosity. But I decided not to because I figured it would be percieved as sniping of the kind that anonymous has been doing. I certainly congratulate SBF on the win, and I'm sure he bought a lot of tickets. Many people bought a lot of tickets. I bought one at each of the three or four games I attended while they were for sale, but every time I was standing there buying my one ticket there was someone next to me purchasing multiple tickets. One time it was eight. So I wouldn't be surprised if Andrew's scenario of one person's name being pulled more than once didn't occur during the drawing. In which case they would have drawn another name rather than presenting two jerseys to one person, thereby increasing everyone else's chances of course.
And really, if you think the fix was in and they just did SBF a favor by giving him a jersey, since this is a charitable cause wouldn't it have made more sense for them to do him the favor before the drawing so he could write about it then and perhaps get more people to enter the raffle and make more money for the charitable cause?
And I'm sure SBF's bottom line is really happy with this "gift", since he'll probably have to pay income tax on its value in addition to dropping probably $500 to get it framed properly. Some gift, huh?
An Briosca Mor said...
So I wouldn't be surprised if Andrew's scenario of one person's name being pulled more than once didn't occur during the drawing.
Guess what, one person won 2 jerseys and he and his wife both accepted one each.
Guess what, one person won 2 jerseys and he and his wife both accepted one each.
Boy, they must really suck up to the team in their blog. :->
Anon at 9:25, now that you have been proven (statistically) wrong based on your own assertion of 3,000 raffles sold, when are you going to apologize to Andrew for your incorrect math?
Also, the other Anon's, when are you going to apologize to SBF???
Do you realize that rigging a raffle in the District of Columbia is a crime? The Lottery and Charitable Games Control Board of the DC Government oversees raffles.
By accusing him on this blog in a public fashion, you may have made libelous statements unless you have something to back up your claims.
So as they say, PUT UP OR SHUT UP!!!
Ok, this is ANON @ 9:25am back for you simpletons. I guess I have to break out my crayons for Mr. Optimistic and Andrew. Using our original example, 3000 tickets sold, 10 purchased, 30 jerseys up for raffle. The chance of winning any of of the 30 goes as follows. One name drawn, 1 winner. 2999 tickets left and assume you were not the winner and still have your 10 tickets left -(1 in 300 chance) Your chance of your name being selected now are 2999/10 or 1 in 299.90 or basically 1 in 300. It goes the same with another winner, 2998 tickets left in the bowl and you have your 10. Are you all feelin' me now?
There, I "PUT UP" - care to respond???
Where Andrews' thinking went wrong is dividing 300/30.
PS. Who was the official from the The Lottery and Charitable Games Control Board of the DC Government who oversaw this raffle?
I'm not a regular blogger, I'm not a regular reader of any blog (except my wife's), and I rarely comment. But this whole thread is so awful, I feel like I have to contribute my 2-cents to this train wreck.
SBF and the African Queen don't have a mean bone in their bodies. I realize that it's Pollyanna to think that if you don't have something nice to say that you won't say anything. But I think it is reasonable to expect civility.
Anon, you can express your anger/outrage without calling into question anyone’s character. For instance, you might say that the strong negative reactions are what you would expect if a Nationals employee won, which is why Nationals employees are not eligible. And that SBF and the African Queen work for the Nationals even if they are not paid for that work, and therefore should not be eligible. I would argue that this is not the case, but my point is that constructive comments make for a better conversations – no cause is advanced by name calling. Channel your intelligence and strong opinions to advance your cause(s) rather than alienate your audience.
SBF, congratulations. Would it help to turn off anon comments?
SBF and the African Queen don't have a mean bone in their bodies....
I beg to differ.
Hi guys. Just want to make sure everyone knew I did not post any of these anonymous comments since I'm known for being a hater around these parts.
AQ, i think that people are jealous of some of the benefits the two of you receive due to your hard work and efforts on behalf of the Nats. as fan bloggers, we walk a fine line between being the fans that we are and acting as pseudo-press. when folks see you winning jerseys, and sitting in the President's club, and attending otherwise private parties, as innocuous or innocent as that MAY be, you have to admit that it COULD look suspicious, and since the two of you put yourselves out there (and make your blog open for comment), it leaves you open to criticism.
for the record, i don'thave a problem with you winning the jersey. i won one last year and have it proudly displayed in my home. i just didn't brag about it on my blog.
I actually came to thank SBF for taking the time to post the entire transcript of the Bowden and Rizzo Q&A. I only excerpted on my blog cause it was just too much work.
Best,
Dave at Bottomfeeder Baseball
http://bottomfeederbaseball.blogspot.com/
EJC said, "If you aren't at the game, you can't buy a raffle ticket. If raffle tickets were sold elsewhere, I don't know about it."
EJC - The raffle tickets went on sale the first week of Sept I believe and I bought my tickets the first day. You did not have to present to win.
FYI for Andrew and readers - THEY ANNOUNCED DURING THE CEREMONY THAT OUT OF THE 40 WINNERS, 26 WERE PRESENT AND THE OTHER 14 WOULD BE MAILED TO THE WINNERS.
I know someone who bought 100 tickets and did not win a jersey.
dave nichols won a jersey last year? .....mmmm the conspiracy grows.
I know, sketchy huh? i bought one ticket last year and won, and bought two tickets this year and didn't. go figure :-)
Anon 3:19, thank you very much for the information. The only place I have seen the raffle tickets sold was inside the ballpark, but I assume they were also sold elsewhere.
Just one more suggestion. From the tone of your answer, I can clearly see that you are NOT the anomynous troll whom I refer to as "Annie." Would you mind selecting a user name just to distinguish yourself from that other person? (You can add the username in the post if it's too cumbersome to use the other non-anomynous methods of posting.) If you'd rather not, I understand, and thank you for answering my question.
Eddie Cunningham
Rockville, MD
Back from the ballpark and got a chance to talk to Vera Maher of the Washington Nationals Dream Foundation.
I told her what was going on here on the Blog and she had not read any of the "comments" associated with SBF's original Post. When I told her of the accusations of rigging---she was very surprised and volunteered information regarding the raffle:
There were approximately 3,100 raffles sold and 40 jerseys awarded and 1 person did win 2 jerseys. She said SBF's name was drawn the same way like other winners and was witnessed by 2 other people. She was aware that SBF bought multiple raffles, but did not know the exact number.
There you have it. Believe it or not.
With Anon, you don't get the statistical analysis. For a person who bought 1 ticket the math is a 1 in 77.5 chance of winning 1 Random jersey which is 3100/40. Now if you bought 1 ticket, your chance of getting a particular jersey like the Zimmerman would be 1 in 3,100.
Using the previous example posted earlier of buying $50 in raffles would give you 10 chances as they are $5 each so your chance of winning 1 random jersey was 1 in 7.75
Anon@9:25am to Andrew - Please stop, you are just making things worse for yourself. Now its 1:7.75 chance. Thanks for the chuckle. It was ONE RAFFLE! The formula for chance is tickets sold/tickets purchased. The 40 jerseys represent the ONE drawing, held FORTY times! If you had one ticket, it's never better than 1:3100 during the 40 draws, if you have ten tickets, it's never better than 1:310 (roughly.) You are confused. The number of jerseys must be throwing you way off. Hey, I know, I have a raffle and your chances of winning are 1 in 7.75. Want to buy tickets?
Your math says that a person purchased 1/3rd of 1% of tickets and had a chance to win of 12.9%? Thanks, but I'll do my own taxes.
Anon - Your formula is the statistical result for winning 1 particular jersey such as Zimmerman's vs. winning any random jersey.
Take the example of 10 coins. You buy the nickel and the dime and then they are thrown in with 8 quarters bought by others. The random statistics is if 1 coin was chosen 1 of your coins would have a 1 in 5 chance of being picked. Now then, if they were going to pick 2 coins at random, your chances would be 1 in 2.50
Your odds increase based on buying more of those coins or more coins chosen. You can always in a raffle try to put the odds in your favor buy purchasing more chances, but it is like gambling in there is never a guarantee even with 1:1 odds of winning.
Have you ever played Red or Black on the Roulette wheel? Similar but not the same concept. There are 18 Black and 18 Red and 2 Green. You could buy the black and the red and there is a small chance that green could come up which has a 1 in 19 likelihood with each spin hence the house's advantage.
Andrew- Anon@925 again. I appreciate your spirit as you are a competitor. The crux of our differences is this. You are using probability logic and I'm using statistical analysis. Here's the difference -
Both subjects are important, relevant, and useful. But they are different, and understanding the distinction is crucial in properly interpreting the relevance of mathematical evidence. Many a gambler has gone to a cold and lonely grave for failing to make the proper distinction between probability and statistics.
This distinction will perhaps become clearer if we trace the thought process of a mathematician encountering her first craps game:
If this mathematician were a probabilist, she would see the dice and think ``Six-sided dice? Presumably each face of the dice is equally likely to land face up. Now assuming that each face comes up with probability 1/6, I can figure out what my chances of crapping out are.''
If instead a statistician wandered by, she would see the dice and think ``Those dice may look OK, but how do I know that they are not loaded? I'll watch a while, and keep track of how often each number comes up. Then I can decide if my observations are consistent with the assumption of equal-probability faces. Once I'm confident enough that the dice are fair, I'll call a probabilist to tell me how to play.''
In summary, probability theory enables us to find the consequences of a given ideal world, while statistical theory enables us to to measure the extent to which our world is ideal.
In sum, I'm saying that the real world events of a raffle, selling 3100 tickets, you buying 10, will only yield you a 1:310 chance of winning 1 random item. If you wanted a Zimmy jersey, your odds go way up as you start with 1:310 multiplied by 1:30 - the Zimmy.
Just to clarify, I meant to say that your chances decrease further if you want a Zimmy jersey - by the odds going way up.
In sum, I'm saying that the real world events of a raffle, selling 3100 tickets, you buying 10, will only yield you a 1:310 chance of winning 1 random item.
That is true if only one winning ticket is drawn. But the jersey raffle was more complex than that, since apparently 40 winning tickets were pulled out of the pool. So, in your example of there being 3100 tickets, the probability of my one ticket being pulled out on the first draw is 1/3100. The probability of my one ticket being pulled out on the second draw is the probability that it wasn't pulled out on the first draw (3099/3100) times the probability that it is pulled out on the second draw (1/3099). You can continue the series of calculations out through 40 draws following the same pattern. When you're done, to get the total probability of my one ticket being pulled out on any one of the 40 draws (thereby making me the winner of a jersey) you would add up the probabilities of it being pulled out on draw #1, draw #2 ond on through draw #40. It would be fairly easy to write out the formula for this, but not in one of these blogger comment boxes where you have no access to mathematical notation.
For an entry with 10 tickets out of 3100, the process is the same except that for each draw you need to figure out the probability that none of the ten tickets was pulled out in any of the previous draws and multiply it by the probability that one of them is pulled out in the current draw, then add them up to get the probability that one and only one of the ten tickets is pulled out during the forty draws. If you want to allow for more than one of the ten tickets to be pulled out during the forty draw sequence, though, it gets much more complex. Back in the day, I probably could have coded up a Fortran program to calculate it all out for you in an hour or so, but not any more.
Bottom line, though, is that both you guys are more wrong than you are right in this argument.
An Briosca Mor said... Back in the day, I probably could have coded up a Fortran program to calculate it all out for you in an hour or so, but not any more.
Look, it's not that complicated. The main argument was whether buying 10 tickets gave you a 1:8 chance or 1:310 chance. We're not trying to map DNA here.
Look, it's not that complicated. The main argument was whether buying 10 tickets gave you a 1:8 chance or 1:310 chance.
To which the answer is...neither. That's why you're both wrong. It's that simple.
We're not trying to map DNA here.
Good thing, too, I'd say.
An Briosca Mor said... To which the answer is...neither. That's why you're both wrong. It's that simple.
It's easy to say someone is wrong without at least a hint as to why you believe so. I don't even have a guess from you to review. Great.
It's easy to say someone is wrong without at least a hint as to why you believe so. I don't even have a guess from you to review. Great.
I told you exactly how to calculate the probability that one and only one of SBF's presumed 10 out of 3100 tickets would be pulled if 40 tickets were drawn from the hopper. Excuuuuuuse me for not calculating it out for you, but even with a calculator at hand (which I didn't have) it would take 10-15 minutes to do that. I left it for you as an exercise.
I do know this, though. If you did calculate it out, the answer would be neither 1 in 310 or 1 in 8. It would be somewhere in between those numbers, but to calculate it exactly I'd need to calculate it exactly. I've told you how, so if you don't believe me, do it yourself and prove me wrong!
An Briosca Mor said... if you don't believe me, do it yourself and prove me wrong!
Hey boy blunder.... why don't you prove ME wrong. I'm the one who has thrown out numbers and examples. You haven't written ANY specifics... and since it would take a computer program...blah blah blah.
I know I'm right.
I know I'm right.
Well then, as my eighth grade algebra teacher used to say on the word problems, show all your work or don't expect even partial credit. I've given you the formula, spelled out in words due to lack of mathematical notation for blog comments. All anyone needs to do to get the answer is plug the numbers 3100, 1, and 40 into the formula and grind it out. All you've given is a guess. And guess what? Your guess is wrong.
In sum, I'm saying that the real world events of a raffle, selling 3100 tickets, you buying 10, will only yield you a 1:310 chance of winning 1 random item.
And as I said before, this is only correct if they draw exactly one winning ticket out of the 3100 entries. In the jersey raffle, though, they drew forty winning tickets. This changes your chances of winning from 1 in 310 to something higher than that. Can you not comprehend this?
And you don't need statistics to figure out what your real chances are in the case of 40 tickets drawn. It can be calculated exactly using probability theory. Although based on your comments it doesn't seem like you're bright enough to understand that.
The highest probability is on the 1st ticket pulled and the odds go down ratably with each ticket pulled.
Andrew was correct for the 1st ticket pulled only which maybe was what he was saying. 3100/40/10 or 1:7.75 or 12.9% chance of winning on the 1st pull. Once 39 winners have been pulled, you have 3061 raffles remaining with 1 jersey left and still 10 raffles with your name on it in the bin which is 1:306 or 3.26% on the last jersey.
You must take an average of all 40 outcomes which gives you your odds of 6.64% chance of winning with 10 raffles with your name on it.
Math_Geek said...
The highest probability is on the 1st ticket pulled and the odds go down ratably with each ticket pulled.
True, from 1:310 to 1:306 roughly.
Math_Geek said...
You must take an average of all 40 outcomes which gives you your odds of 6.64% chance of winning with 10 raffles with your name on it.
That statement is incorrect. The raffle is a chance at 1 of 40 - random. Since the assumption is that all jerseys are equal, and considered 1 winner per draw, they don't factor in to your chance of winning other than the fact that they are removed from the prizes one at a time. Like I stated earlier, you are essentially doing a raffle for 1 jersey 40 times. The worst chance you have before the raffle is 1:310 and if you haven't won by the time jersey # 40 is chosen, your odds are 1:306, assuming the winners are not thrown back into the 3100 original tickets.
I'm done. Thank you ladies and germs.
Come on. You are joking right? You see no correlation in increased probability giving 40 jerseys away? The question at hand from the start has been the odds of Screech winning 1 jersey out of the 40 and only 1 jersey and it didn't matter which particular jersey.
And no, they don't throw winning raffles back in.
An Briosca Mor, anybody, do you agree?
"The worst chance you have before the raffle is 1:310 and if you haven't won by the time jersey # 40 is chosen, your odds are 1:306, assuming the winners are not thrown back into the 3100 original tickets."
This much is right, in that you have correctly stated the probability of one of the ten tickets being drawn from the pool on each of the forty pulls provided it wasn't drawn on an earlier pull. But if you want to calculate the probablity of one of the ten tickets being pulled out in the first forty tries, i.e. the probability before any tickets are pulled, you don't just take an average of those 40 probabilities. You need to calculate it the way I laid it out before, as a sum of a series. The total probability going in is equal to the probability that a ticket is pulled on the first try + (the probability it isn't pulled on the first try X the probability it is pulled on the second try) + (the probability it isn't pulled on the first two tries X the probability it is pulled on the third try) and on like that in sequence through all forty tries. This is a pretty involved calculation, which is why a computer program would be very helpful.
You all are wrong and it goes back to exactly what I gave originally.
I am watching Cubs/Mets game on TV and they have an ad for the Illinois State Halloween raffle and gives odds of winning ANY prize is 1 in 982.
I go to their website for the info. They will sell 500,000 raffles and give away 509 winners and if you buy 1 ticket your odds are 1 in 982 that you will win A prize (not the Grand Prize).
Here's their link:
http://www.illinoislottery.com/Raffle/Inquiries.htm
The math is simply 500,000/509 = 1 in 982.
If you buy 10 tickets 1 in 98.2 or if you buy 100 1 in 9.82 or buy 1,000 1 in .982 which still doesn't guarantee you will win if you bought 1,000 tickets.
But anyway, read the Illinois State disclosure and tell me you think they are wrong too. It is the same concept I said from the beginning. 3100 total raffles sold with 40 prizes and SBF bought 10 raffles. 3100/10/40 = 1:7.75 or 12.9% chance of winning 1 random jersey. Odds of winning the Ryan Zimmerman is 1:310 or .323%
I didn't disagree however gave the odds on winning based on 1 raffle pulled one at a time and posted in order of drawing. You give no preference to order.
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